WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on September 25?

The question asks whether WTI Crude Oil will close above $99 on September 25, 2026. The resolution criteria are detailed but the core is a simple price threshold. The news articles, while not directly about WTI on that specific future date, provide strong context about the current oil price environment and trends. Article NYT article reports that global oil prices have dropped below $100 a barrel, with Brent crude at $97.69, indicating that prices are currently below the $99 threshold. Article smh.com.au article mentions that global benchmark oil prices are trading around $100 a barrel, but this is in the context of supply disruptions that could push prices higher. However, the same article notes that Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is being restarted at a reduced rate, which could alleviate some supply concerns. The overall tone of the articles suggests that while there are upward pressures from geopolitical events, the immediate trend is downward, with prices having recently fallen below $100. Given that the question is about a specific date over two years in the future, the current price level and trends are not deterministic, but they provide a baseline. The probability of a YES is low because the current price is below $99 and the immediate trend is downward, but there is uncertainty about future events. The articles do not provide any information that would suggest a high likelihood of prices rising significantly above $99 by that date. Therefore, a probability of 0.12 is assigned, reflecting a low but non-zero chance, as the market could be influenced by unforeseen events.