Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?

The question asks whether the 7-day moving average of daily transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31, 2026, will be fewer than 25. The available news articles report data from late July 2025, more than a year before the resolution date, and thus provide only a very distant baseline. Article 1 notes that on July 28, 2025, 39 ships transited, and on July 29 only 5, indicating high day-to-day volatility. Article 2 reports 28 transits on July 27, 2025, and a month peak of 46 on July 14. These figures are all above 25, suggesting that under normal conditions the strait sees well over 25 daily transits. However, the articles also mention that traffic was affected by the US-Iran conflict and hopes for resolution, implying that geopolitical factors can cause significant drops. Given the one-year gap, it is impossible to predict the exact state of conflict or shipping patterns in August 2026. The resolution criteria rely on IMF Portwatch data, which may differ from the Kpler data cited in the articles. Without any recent or forward-looking data, the historical numbers point to typical daily transits well above 25, making a drop below that threshold unlikely but not impossible if a major disruption occurs. Therefore, a moderate NO probability is warranted, but not extreme, because the articles do not settle the question and the time horizon is long.