Will Giorgia Meloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

The question asks whether Giorgia Meloni will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election, with a resolution deadline of December 22, 2028. The articles confirm that Meloni is currently Prime Minister, having taken office after the 2022 election NYT article. They discuss her relationship with Donald Trump and her government's current status Euronews articleGuardian GiorgiaTheconversation articleGuardian How. However, the question refers to the 'next Italian general election,' which has not yet occurred. Italian governments typically last a full term, and Meloni's coalition appears stable, but no article provides specific information about the timing or outcome of the next election. Given that she is the incumbent and her party remains influential, she is a strong candidate to retain power, but the lack of direct evidence about the next election introduces uncertainty. Therefore, a moderate probability of 0.65 reflects her current position and the absence of clear countervailing factors, while acknowledging the inherent unpredictability of future elections.