Will Likud win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

The question asks whether Likud will win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. The provided articles focus exclusively on the political fallout from the October 7, 2023 attacks, specifically allegations that Prime Minister Netanyahu ignored warnings. While this controversy is a significant political liability for Netanyahu and his Likud party, the articles do not provide any polling data, seat projections, or comparative analysis of Likud's expected performance relative to other parties. Without such data, it is impossible to assess Likud's likely ranking. The articles suggest Netanyahu is under pressure, which could hurt Likud's vote share, but they do not indicate whether Likud would fall to third place or remain first or second. Given the lack of relevant electoral projections, the probability must be treated as uncertain, leaning toward NO because the controversy is a headwind for Likud, but not strongly enough to conclude a third-place finish without evidence. The articles Aljazeera article and Post article describe the political context but do not resolve the question.