Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on December 31?

The question asks whether the U.S. tariff rate on China will be less than 5% on December 31, 2026. The resolution criteria specify that the general tariff rate includes any base tariffs plus additional tariffs on Chinese imports, and that only tariffs in effect count. Currently, the U.S. has imposed significant tariffs on Chinese goods, including a 10% baseline tariff on all imports and additional tariffs on Chinese goods, which together exceed 5%. Article 1 indicates the U.S. Trade Representative is urging G20 support for Trump's tariff agenda, which includes targeting China, suggesting a continuation or escalation of tariffs rather than reduction. Article 2 reports a bilateral agreement to cut tariffs on $60 billion worth of goods, but the size of reductions and implementation timeline are unspecified, and the cuts cover only a fraction of total trade. The agreement does not indicate a general rate below 5% for all Chinese imports. Given the current tariff structure and the lack of evidence for a broad reduction to below 5%, the probability is low. However, the possibility of future negotiations or policy changes prevents an extreme estimate, so 0.25 reflects a cautious NO leaning.