Will Liberal Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

The question asks whether the Liberal Party will win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons. The articles describe events that appear to be part of the current parliamentary term, not the next general election. However, they strongly indicate that the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, already holds a majority government (174 of 343 seats) after by-elections and floor crossings FT articleBBC CarneyBBC ThirdBBC Conservative. This majority status makes it highly likely that the Liberals will also win the next election, as incumbents with a majority and recent momentum are typically favored. The by-election wins and defections from opposition parties signal strong political support and a weakened Conservative opposition FT articleBBC ThirdBBC Conservative. While the articles do not directly cover the next election, the current majority and political dynamics suggest a high probability of a Liberal victory. The resolution criteria specify that the winner is the party with the most seats, and the Liberals already have that. Given the strong current position and no contrary evidence, I estimate a 90% probability of a Liberal win in the next election. The remaining 10% accounts for the possibility of unforeseen events, such as internal party issues, economic crises, or a major shift in public opinion before the next election, which is scheduled to occur by 2030-10-15.