Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

The question asks whether no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting will occur by September 30, 2026. The resolution criteria explicitly state that the June 22 Switzerland round concluded with progress and follow-on technical talks, but those technical talks do not qualify by themselves. The key is whether a new formal senior-level round begins by the deadline. The news articles provided do not mention any new senior-level US-Iran talks after June 22; they only discuss ongoing conflict and regional talks (e.g., Iran-Oman talks on the Strait of Hormuz) BBC articleAP article. However, the existence of a roadmap and continued technical engagement suggests a high likelihood of a follow-on senior round being convened, given the momentum. The criteria are strict: technical talks don't count, and the meeting must be senior-level, in-person, and publicly acknowledged. Since the articles do not report any such new round, and the conflict appears ongoing with no clear exit strategy BBC article, there is significant uncertainty. The probability of no qualifying meeting is moderately high, but the diplomatic process could still produce a new round. I estimate 0.6 for YES (no meeting), as the lack of reported new senior talks and the ongoing conflict make it more likely than not that no qualifying round occurs by the deadline, but the roadmap and continued engagement leave a real chance of a new round. Citations: BBC article describes the ongoing conflict and lack of exit strategy, AP article shows regional talks but not US-Iran senior negotiations.