Will Iran target Iraq by October 15, 2026?

The question asks whether Iran will target Iraq through a qualifying military action (air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike) by October 15, 2026. The provided articles describe drone attacks launched from Iraqi territory against Saudi Arabia, with Iraq closing border crossings and investigating. These attacks were directed at Saudi Arabia, not Iraq, and were blamed on Iran-backed militias, not explicitly claimed by Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory. The articles do not report any Iranian air or missile strikes directed at Iraq. The resolution criteria explicitly exclude proxy attacks (e.g., by Iran-backed militias) and require explicit Iranian claim or confirmation of origin from Iranian territory. The articles mention Iran-backed fighters in Iraq and Yemen joining forces, but this does not constitute a qualifying action by Iran against Iraq. Given the lack of evidence of any Iranian military action targeting Iraq in the articles, the probability of a YES resolution is low. However, the timeframe extends to October 2026, and regional tensions are high, so a small but non-negligible probability remains. The articles do not provide any direct evidence of Iran targeting Iraq, so I set the probability at 0.2, reflecting a NO lean but acknowledging the possibility of future events not covered by these articles.