Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?

The only available article reports a Quaest poll from the eve of the first round showing Sergio Moro leading with 43% of valid votes, ahead of Sandro Alex (29%) and Requião Filho (27%) Ground article. This is a substantial lead, but the poll is a single snapshot and does not account for the possibility of a runoff, where Moro's support could consolidate or erode depending on the second-place candidate. The margin of error is small (2 points), and Moro's lead over the second-place candidate is 14 points, which is outside the margin, suggesting a strong position Ground article. However, the article does not provide information on the second-round scenario, and the resolution criteria specify that a runoff will occur if no candidate receives a majority in the first round. Since Moro has 43%, a runoff is likely, and his chances in that runoff are uncertain based on the available data. The article does not mention any other polls or historical trends, so the evidence is thin. Given the lead, Moro is more likely than not to win, but the uncertainty about the runoff and the lack of additional data keep the probability moderate, not extreme. Therefore, I estimate a 60% chance of a YES outcome.