Will the total vote count for all participants in Arizona Governor General Election be above 2600000?

The question asks whether the total vote count for all participants in the Arizona Governor General Election will exceed 2,600,000. The only relevant article Ground article describes a debate among candidates Andy Biggs (R), Risa Lombardo (G), and Teri Ann Hourihan (No Labels), noting that Governor Hobbs (the incumbent Democrat) skipped the debate. The article provides no vote totals, turnout figures, or any numerical data about expected or actual vote counts. Without any official certified results, historical turnout data, or even preliminary counts, there is no evidence to suggest the vote count will surpass 2.6 million. In the absence of any reported facts about the election outcome, the probability must be low. Historical turnout in Arizona gubernatorial elections has varied; for example, the 2022 general election saw about 2.5 million votes cast for governor. Given no new information indicating a surge above that level, a probability of 0.15 reflects a cautious estimate that the threshold is unlikely to be met based solely on the available article.