Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?

The question asks whether the 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz on October 31, 2026, will be between 0 and 5. The resolution criteria specify that transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. The news articles indicate that while Iran has declared the strait largely blocked since February 28 Reuters Iran, there is evidence that some oil traffic continues Reuters Iraq and that crude oil exports have largely returned to pre-war levels of 13.5 million barrels per day as of September 28 Guardian article. This suggests that the number of ship transits is likely much higher than 5 per day, as even a single tanker carrying 2 million barrels Reuters Iraq would represent multiple transits, and the pre-war baseline for crude alone implies dozens of tanker transits daily. Additionally, Iran's threat to strike tankers aapnews.aap.com.au article and the political standoff Reuters IranGround article create uncertainty, but the actual traffic data shows significant volume Guardian article. The refined product shipments are lower but still at 677,000 barrels per day Guardian article, which would require multiple ship transits. Therefore, the probability that the average daily transits fall in the 0-5 range is low, as the available evidence points to ongoing substantial traffic despite the blockade rhetoric.