Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win less than 3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?

The question asks whether the Religious Zionist Party–Zehut list will win less than 3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections. The provided news articles do not contain any polling data, electoral forecasts, or specific information about the party's current support or prospects. Article Guardian article discusses British Jewish identity post-October 7 attacks, which is unrelated to Israeli domestic voting intentions. Article Aljazeera article frames US-Israel conflict as a religious war, offering no electoral data. Article abc.net.au article is about Australian hate laws, completely off-topic. Without any relevant information from the sources, the forecast must rely on general knowledge: the Religious Zionist Party–Zehut alliance (which includes Otzma Yehudit and Noam) won about 10.8% in the 2022 election, but internal splits and the departure of Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit have weakened the remaining list. Current polls (not cited here) suggest the combined far-right vote may be lower, but the 3.25% threshold is very low—the party would need to fall below that, which is possible if it fails to unite or loses support. Given the lack of article evidence, a moderate probability leaning toward YES (below 3.25%) is reasonable, as the party's fragmentation and potential failure to pass the threshold make a low vote share plausible, but not certain. The 0.65 reflects a cautious tilt based on the absence of countervailing data in the provided sources.