Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oklahoma be less than 900,000?

The question asks whether total votes cast in the 2026 Oklahoma Senate election will be less than 900,000. Oklahoma is a reliably Republican state, and the Republican nominee, Kevin Hern, won the primary with 63.7% of the vote Aljazeera primaries. The Democratic nominee, N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas, has minimal campaign funding ($455) compared to the Republican's $56,000 Aljazeera What, suggesting a lopsided general election. In such races, turnout tends to be lower because the outcome is not competitive, and voters may be less motivated. Historically, Oklahoma Senate elections have seen total votes around 1.0–1.2 million in competitive years, but in non-competitive years, turnout can drop below 900,000. For example, the 2020 Senate race had about 1.1 million votes, but that was a presidential year with high turnout. In a midterm with a clear favorite, turnout could be suppressed. However, the resolution criteria include all certified votes for candidates and non-candidate options, and blank/invalid votes are excluded. The primary source is official state results, but the articles do not provide any vote totals or turnout projections for the general election. Given the lack of direct data, I rely on the political context: a non-competitive race in a red state, which often leads to lower turnout. Still, midterm elections in Oklahoma typically see at least 800,000–900,000 votes for Senate races, so the probability that it stays below 900,000 is moderate. I assign 0.62, leaning slightly toward YES because the race is likely to be a blowout, but not extreme because midterm turnout can still be substantial.