Will SCOTUS allow Arizona’s citizenship-proof and pre-election noncitizen-removal rules?

The Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case, but the resolution requires a specific ruling on two distinct issues: that neither the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) nor a federal consent decree bars Arizona from requiring proof of citizenship on its state form, and that the NVRA does not bar Arizona from canceling noncitizen registrations within 90 days of a federal election. The articles indicate the Court will weigh the appeal, but they do not provide any indication of the likely outcome or the justices' leanings. NYT articleAP article The case involves complex federal preemption questions and a consent decree, making a full win for Arizona uncertain. Historical patterns show the Court often splits on voting rights cases, and the specific combination of both requirements being upheld is a high bar. Given the lack of clear signals from the articles and the difficulty of the legal questions, a moderate probability of a Yes is appropriate, but the odds are slightly against such a complete victory for Arizona. The articles do not provide enough evidence to assign a high probability, so the estimate is below 0.5.