Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

The articles describe an ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran threatening ships, attacks resuming after a ceasefire breakdown, and traffic below average FT IranReuters Gulf. Talks between Iran and Oman are progressing but not finalized, and the proposed deal would formalize Iranian control rather than restore normal traffic Reuters IranFT IranAP article. The resolution requires a 7-day moving average of transit calls at or above 60 by November 30, 2026, which is a specific and relatively high threshold. Given the current disruptions and the uncertain timeline for a deal, it is plausible but not likely that traffic returns to that level within the timeframe. The articles do not provide quantitative data on current transit counts, so the probability is moderate-low, leaning toward NO but not extreme because a deal could be reached and traffic could recover.