Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from North Carolina be less than 3,500,000?

The question asks whether total votes cast in the 2026 North Carolina Senate election will be less than 3,500,000. In recent midterm elections, North Carolina Senate races have drawn high turnout. For example, the 2022 Senate race (between Cheri Beasley and Ted Budd) saw about 3.6 million votes, and the 2020 race (Cal Cunningham vs. Thom Tillis) had over 5.3 million votes. The 2026 race features a high-profile matchup between Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley. Cooper, a popular former governor, is expected to drive strong Democratic turnout, while Whatley, though struggling in polls, will still mobilize Republican voters. The articles indicate that the GOP has pulled funding from the race, suggesting it may be less competitive, but that does not necessarily reduce total votes—competitive or not, North Carolina consistently sees high midterm turnout. The 3.5 million threshold is relatively low; even a low-turnout midterm in North Carolina typically exceeds 3 million votes. Given historical patterns and the high-profile candidates, it is more likely than not that total votes will exceed 3.5 million. However, there is some uncertainty: if the race becomes a blowout, turnout could dip slightly. Still, the probability that votes fall below 3.5 million is low, estimated at 15%. Thus, the probability that the answer is YES (votes less than 3.5 million) is 0.15, meaning the probability of NO (votes >= 3.5 million) is 0.85. The resolution criteria specify that if results are not known by March 31, 2027, it resolves to the lowest bracket, but that is a remote possibility. The cited articles Guardian article and NYT article confirm the race dynamics but do not provide vote totals; they are used to assess competitiveness and likely turnout.