Will the CAQ win fewer than 1 seat in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?

The question asks whether the CAQ will win fewer than 1 seat in the 2026 Quebec election. The only provided article reports a recent poll showing the CAQ at 17% support, down 7 points, while the PQ leads at 30% Ground article. This indicates a significant decline for the CAQ, but 17% support is still far above the threshold for winning zero seats. In a 127-seat legislature, a party with 17% support would typically win a substantial number of seats, even with electoral inefficiencies. The article also notes that the CAQ leader insists the campaign is not over, implying the party is still competitive Ground article. There is no evidence in the article that the CAQ is on the verge of being shut out. Therefore, while the CAQ is clearly struggling, the probability of them winning zero seats is low, but not negligible given the possibility of a further collapse. I assign a probability of 0.2.