Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

The question asks whether the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz will reach or exceed 60 by October 31, 2026. The news articles paint a mixed picture. On one hand, crude oil exports from the Strait have largely returned to pre-war levels Guardian article, and Iraq successfully transported crude through the Strait for the first time in decades Reuters Iraq, suggesting some normalization. However, Iran continues to impose conditions for reopening the waterway, demanding US concessions and threatening ships Reuters IranGround articleFT article. The IMF Portwatch metric includes not just tankers but also container, dry bulk, and other ships, so the recovery in crude exports may not fully translate to the broader transit count. The articles indicate ongoing tensions and partial disruptions, with Iran still asserting control and threatening vessels Aljazeera articleFT article. Given that the threshold of 60 is a specific numeric target and the situation remains volatile with significant political hurdles, it is more likely than not that traffic will not fully normalize to that level by the deadline. The evidence suggests a partial recovery but not a complete return to normal, leading to a probability below 0.5 but not extremely low due to the positive signs in export volumes.