Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Texas's 7th District House election be at least 21 percentage points?

The only relevant article Post article indicates that Texas's 7th District has become more competitive as suburban voters shift away from the GOP, and that Democratic Rep. Lizzie Fletcher has won three consecutive terms. However, the article does not provide any specific margin of victory figures for past elections, nor does it suggest that Fletcher's margins have been at least 21 percentage points. The fact that the district is described as 'more competitive' suggests that the margin may not be extremely large. Without data on recent margins, I cannot confidently predict a 21-point or greater victory. The article's emphasis on competitiveness and the shift of suburban voters away from the GOP could support a Democratic win, but the margin is uncertain. Given the lack of specific margin data and the characterization of the district as competitive, the probability of a 21-point or larger Democratic margin is below 0.5 but not extremely low, as Fletcher has won multiple terms and the district may lean Democratic. I set the probability at 0.35, reflecting a moderate chance but not a strong likelihood of such a large margin.