Will Likud win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

The available articles only describe Likud's primary process and candidate list ahead of the 2026 Israeli legislative election Aljazeera articleGround article. They provide no polling data, seat projections, or comparative information about other parties' expected performance. The question asks specifically whether Likud will finish fourth in seat count, which depends on the relative strength of multiple parties (Likud, Yesh Atid, National Unity, Religious Zionism, Shas, UTJ, etc.) in an election that has not yet occurred. Without any evidence about likely seat distributions, the probability cannot be meaningfully differentiated from a coin flip. The articles confirm Likud is actively preparing and remains a major governing party, but that does not indicate a specific finishing position. Therefore, the most defensible estimate is near 0.5, reflecting genuine uncertainty given the lack of relevant forecasting information in the cited sources.