Will Yashar win less than 16% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?

The question asks whether Yashar will win less than 16% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections. The resolution criteria define the percentage as valid votes for Yashar divided by total valid votes. The news articles provide polling data that strongly indicate Yashar is the leading party. Article 1 states that Yashar is 'currently polling ahead of the Likud party' Aljazeera article. Article 2 provides specific seat projections: a Channel 12 poll shows Yashar leading with 25 seats, while Likud has 21 Ground article. In the 120-seat Knesset, 25 seats corresponds to approximately 20.8% of the vote (25/120). Even if the total vote share differs slightly from seat share due to threshold effects, 20.8% is well above the 16% threshold. The article also mentions an opposition bloc projected to secure 68 seats, further confirming Yashar's strong position Ground article. There is no information suggesting Yashar is polling below 16%. The only uncertainty is whether the polls might shift dramatically before the election, but the current evidence overwhelmingly points to Yashar winning well above 16%. Therefore, the probability that Yashar wins less than 16% is extremely low.