Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

The by-election is in a long-standing Labour stronghold, formerly held by Keir Starmer, and Labour's candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali is the party's nominee. The article notes Labour has held the constituency for decades, which gives the Labour candidate a strong structural advantage. However, the Green Party is fielding its leader Zack Polanski, and the article highlights the Greens' ambition to win their first London seat, suggesting a credible challenge. Given the historical Labour dominance and the incumbency effect, Abdi-Wali is the clear favorite, but the Green challenge introduces enough uncertainty to prevent a near-certain probability. The lack of detailed polling or other evidence in the article means I cannot push the probability much higher than 0.7, as the race is not fully settled by the provided information.