Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more?

The Labour Party has held Holborn and St Pancras for many years, and the by-election was triggered by the resignation of Sir Keir Starmer, a former Labour leader and Prime Minister. The seat is considered a safe Labour seat, and the party is expected to retain it. The article Ground article notes that Labour is 'fighting to hold onto the seat' and that the candidate, Sagal Abdi-Wali, is a former Camden council leader with strong local ties, which suggests a robust campaign. The Green Party, led by Zack Polanski, is mounting a challenge, but the article describes the Greens' recent rise as 'offset in recent months,' implying they may not be as competitive as earlier polls suggested. Given the historical Labour dominance in this constituency and the lack of any strong evidence of a major swing away from Labour, it is likely that Labour will win by a comfortable margin. However, the margin of 15% or more is not guaranteed, as by-elections can sometimes see reduced turnouts or protest votes that narrow the gap. The article does not provide specific polling data or margin estimates, so there is some uncertainty. Based on the safe-seat nature and the local strength of the Labour candidate, I assign a probability of 0.65 that Labour wins by 15% or more.