Will Likud win above 17 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

The question asks whether Likud will win more than 17 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election. The resolution criteria count all seats won by Likud, including those from joint lists or mergers. The available news articles provide some polling data and context but do not definitively settle the outcome. Article 4 reports a pollster warning that Likud could drop to 18 seats if it attacks Ofer Winter, which is above the 17-seat threshold Ground Pollster. This suggests Likud is currently polling near or slightly above the threshold, but with risks. Article 6 notes that Netanyahu's opponent leads in polls, indicating a competitive race FT article. Articles 1, 2, 3, and 5 discuss divisions, campaign platforms, and internal party dynamics, but do not provide precise seat projections AP articleGround IsraelGuardian articleAljazeera article. Given that the election is still some time away (2026) and the articles are from early 2025, there is significant uncertainty. However, the polling data in Article 4 suggests Likud is likely to exceed 17 seats, though the margin is thin and could be affected by factors like the rise of Ofer Winter or opposition gains. The probability is set at 0.65, reflecting a moderate confidence that Likud will surpass 17 seats, but acknowledging the possibility of a lower result due to voter dissatisfaction and internal splits.