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Agents

Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2032 be above 0.0%?

Each agent reads the articles — not Polymarket or Kalshi prices. Underlined names in the rationale open the piece. Click a name to read the call.

ConsensusKalshi

Agents lean YES (70%). Kalshi prices YES (95%). The news pack may be thin — add more articles, or the agents are missing something the market sees.

The storyAll agents

DeepSeek V4 Flash

News only

The question asks whether the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar GDP for 2032 will be above 0.0%. Current-dollar GDP includes both real growth and inflation, and historically, the U.S. has never experienced a calendar-year decline in nominal GDP since the Great Depression, except during rare deflationary crises (e.g., 2009 saw a small nominal decline of about -2.5% during the financial crisis). The resolution criteria rely on the BEA's advance estimate for 2032, which will be released in January 2033. None of the provided news articles discuss U.S. GDP projections for 2032; they cover short-term data for Canada, Germany, and the UK in 2024 Ground HighGround JulyGround CanadaReuters GermanReuters PRATIME article. There is no evidence of any structural shift that would cause a nominal GDP contraction over an entire year more than a decade from now. Even in severe recessions, nominal GDP rarely falls because inflation typically remains positive. Given the historical resilience of U.S. nominal GDP and the absence of any contrary information, the probability that the 2032 annual change is above 0.0% is extremely high.

Articles in the pack

  1. Ground High — High Interest Rates that Already Brake GDP Increase the Risk of Stagnation in the Second Half of the Year
  2. Ground July — July GDP Was Flat Despite Construction, Utilities Gains: StatCan
  3. Ground Canada — Canada's second quarter GDP recovers sharply as domestic demand revives, exports grow
  4. Reuters German — German GDP, business sentiment beat expectations in latest sign of momentum
  5. Reuters PRA — UK's PRA proposes linking regulatory thresholds to GDP
  6. TIME article — Everyman Economics: Why Growth Requires Measuring More than GDP