Will Narendra Modi become Prime Minister of India following the next Indian general election?

The question asks whether Narendra Modi will become Prime Minister following the next Indian general election, with a resolution window extending to April 2030. The Financial Times article FT article profiles Yogi Adityanath as a potential successor, noting Modi's age (75) and his third term with a reduced majority. This suggests that while Modi remains the incumbent and is likely to lead the BJP into the next election, there are internal discussions about succession. The article does not indicate that Modi has been replaced or that he will not be the candidate; rather, it highlights the party's contingency planning. Given that Modi has been the dominant figure in Indian politics for a decade and the BJP has no clear alternative with his national stature, the probability of him being the PM after the next election is moderately high. However, the reduced majority and the mention of a successor indicate some uncertainty, preventing an extreme probability. The resolution criteria require him to be formally appointed and command confidence, which is the standard process. No other articles contradict this assessment, and no evidence suggests he will be disqualified or that the election will be canceled. Therefore, a probability of 0.65 reflects a reasonable expectation that Modi will continue, tempered by the possibility of a leadership change or a coalition scenario where he might not be the choice.