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News only · first call
The only available article reports a single poll showing the CAQ at 17% support, which is a significant collapse from their previous standing and would likely translate to a very low seat count under Quebec's first-past-the-post system Ground article. However, this is just one poll with a modest sample size (1,000 voters), and the CAQ could still win more than 5 seats if their support is geographically concentrated, as it has been in the past. The article does not provide seat projections, and the election is still days away, so there is considerable uncertainty. Given the dramatic drop in support, a CAQ result below 5 seats is plausible but not certain, so I lean slightly toward YES but stay near the MAYBE boundary.
Articles in the pack
- Ground article — Quebec Election: PQ Enters Majority Zone; CAQ Collapsing