Will no one dissent the September Fed decision?

The question asks whether there will be no dissents at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. The articles describe a Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh with significant internal division: three officials (Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan) have already dissented in favor of higher rates at a recent meeting NYT article, and these same officials issued fresh inflation warnings at Jackson Hole Reuters article. This indicates a persistent hawkish bloc that has shown willingness to dissent. The Fed has kept rates unchanged for five straight meetings amid high inflation NYT article, and Warsh has been criticized for unclear communication on whether he would hike if inflation stays high AP article. Given that three officials have dissented recently and continue to voice concerns, it is likely at least one will dissent again in September. However, the articles do not explicitly state their intentions for the September meeting, and the composition of voters can change, so there is some uncertainty. The evidence strongly suggests dissent is more likely than not, but not overwhelmingly certain, so a probability of 0.2 for 'no dissent' (i.e., a 0.8 chance of at least one dissent) is appropriate.