Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30?

The provided article focuses on Russian air attacks on Kherson and civilian casualties, with no specific mention of Vodianske or the current frontline situation there. It does not provide any evidence of Russian advances toward the intersection in Vodianske. Given the lack of relevant information, I rely on general knowledge that the frontline in Donetsk has been dynamic, but without specific reporting on Vodianske, the probability of capture by September 30 is low. The article's content is tangential, and no other sources are provided, so the evidence base is thin. Therefore, I estimate a 20% chance of a 'Yes' resolution.