Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?

The articles report that Prime Minister Mark Brown's Cook Islands Party won 12 seats in the 24-member parliament, more than any other party, with one seat still undecided due to weather Post articleReuters article. This gives his party a plurality but not an outright majority, as 12 seats is exactly half of the 24-seat parliament. The articles note that Brown's party has previously relied on independent lawmakers to form a majority and pass laws Post articleReuters article. Since the resolution requires the next individual to be officially sworn in as Prime Minister, and Brown is the incumbent and his party has the most seats, he is the leading candidate. However, the outcome depends on whether he can secure the support of independents or other parties to form a government, which is not yet confirmed in the articles. The articles are from the immediate post-election period and do not report a final sworn-in Prime Minister. Given the strong but not guaranteed position, a probability of 0.6 reflects that Brown is more likely than not to continue as Prime Minister, but there is meaningful uncertainty about coalition negotiations and the final outcome Post articleReuters articleGuardian article.