Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 24, 2026?

The news articles indicate that senior U.S. and Iranian officials are in New York for the UN General Assembly, and there are reports of potential meetings. Article TIME article notes that delegations from both countries are traveling to New York, and tensions are high, but it does not confirm a meeting. Article Ground article reports that President Trump has expressed interest in setting up a meeting with Iranian officials 'if the conditions are right,' and that U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have met with Iranian mediators. This suggests that direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic engagement is possible, but not certain. The resolution criteria require a qualifying meeting by September 24, 2026, and the articles are from around that time, indicating active diplomatic efforts. However, the articles do not confirm that a meeting has already occurred, and the situation is volatile with threats of military action. Given the reported interest and ongoing diplomatic channels, there is a moderate probability that a qualifying meeting will take place, but the uncertainty is high. Therefore, I estimate a 60% chance of a YES resolution.