Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?

The question asks whether fewer than 170 ships will transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the week of September 28–October 4, 2026. The news articles describe a rapidly deteriorating security situation in which the Houthis have seized territory and tightened control over the strait Aljazeera HouthisReuters articleGround article. Historically, the strait sees roughly 12–15% of global trade, which implies a high baseline volume, but the Houthis have explicitly stated they will restrict vessels linked to Saudi Arabia Aljazeera Houthis. Italy is deploying warships to protect its commercial vessels, indicating that shipping companies perceive a serious threat and may reroute or reduce transits Aljazeera Italy. The combination of Houthi control, selective restrictions, and the ongoing disruption at the Strait of Hormuz (which has already rerouted some traffic through Bab el-Mandeb) creates a volatile environment. While the baseline number of transits in a normal week could be well above 170, the credible threat of attacks and the Houthis' history of targeting commercial vessels Aljazeera Houthis suggest that many ships may avoid the strait or be delayed. The articles do not provide exact current transit counts, but the trend is clearly toward reduced traffic. Given that the Houthis have not yet fully closed the strait and some shipping continues (e.g., Italian warships are being deployed to protect passage, not to evacuate), a complete collapse below 170 is not certain. However, the risk is substantial, and the reported tightening of control Aljazeera HouthisReuters articleGround article makes it more likely than not that transits will fall below that threshold. Therefore, a probability of 0.65 reflects a moderate YES leaning, acknowledging both the serious disruption and the possibility that some traffic persists.