Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?

The question asks whether Japan's core-core CPI (all items less fresh food and energy) will increase by ≤1.9% in 2026, based on the year-over-year change from 2025 to 2026. The resolution criteria specify using the SBJ Annual Report for 2026, with precision to one decimal. The news articles provide recent data points: in July 2024, core-core CPI rose 1.9% year-on-year Reuters JapanReuters Annual, and in June 2024 it was 1.7% Reuters Japan. These figures are at or near the 1.9% threshold, but they are for 2024, not 2026. The articles also indicate that inflation is accelerating FT articleReuters Japan, with the Bank of Japan considering rate hikes FT articleReuters JapanReuters Annual. However, the question is about 2026, which is two years away, and the current trend of acceleration could push inflation above 1.9% by then, especially if the BOJ's policy tightening is gradual and inflation expectations remain anchored. The articles do not provide specific forecasts for 2026, and the data is limited to 2024. Given the uncertainty and the fact that current core-core CPI is exactly at 1.9% (July 2024) Reuters JapanReuters Annual, there is a reasonable chance it could stay at or below that level if the BOJ's rate hikes cool the economy, but the accelerating trend suggests a higher probability of exceeding 1.9%. Thus, I assign a probability of 0.35 that the increase is ≤1.9%, reflecting a leaning toward NO (i.e., >1.9%) but with significant uncertainty due to the distant time horizon and lack of direct 2026 forecasts in the articles.