Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be less than 310,000?

The question asks whether total votes cast in the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial general election will be less than 310,000. Historical turnout in Hawaii gubernatorial elections provides a baseline: in 2022, about 406,000 votes were cast for governor, and in 2018 about 380,000. The 2026 election features an incumbent, Josh Green, who won the Democratic primary with 88.51% of the vote Post article, suggesting strong party support and likely higher general-election turnout. However, midterm elections typically see lower turnout than presidential years, and Hawaii's population has been relatively stable. The 310,000 threshold is notably lower than recent totals (e.g., 2022's 406,000), so a drop of nearly 100,000 votes would be required. While the articles do not provide specific turnout projections, the primary results AP articlePost article indicate active party competition, and no major disengagement is reported. Given that the threshold is well below recent historical figures, it is more likely than not that turnout will exceed 310,000, making a YES (less than 310,000) less probable. However, without explicit polling or turnout forecasts, and considering potential factors like voter fatigue or uncontested races, a moderate probability is warranted. Thus, the probability that total votes are less than 310,000 is estimated at 0.35, meaning the complementary probability (≥310,000) is 0.65. The resolution criteria specify that if results are not known by March 31, 2027, it resolves to the lowest bracket, but that is a remote contingency. Therefore, the answer leans toward NO (votes ≥310,000), but with some uncertainty.