Will Vincent Marissal win the next Taschereau Quebec National Assembly election?

Vincent Marissal, a former Québec Solidaire MNA who had announced his retirement, has now switched to the Parti Québécois and will run in the Taschereau riding in the next general election CBC article. This directly addresses the question: he is a candidate in the specific riding. However, the election is not until October 2026, and many factors could change before then—such as internal party dynamics, candidate withdrawals, or electoral swings. The PQ is currently strong in polls, but Taschereau has historically been a competitive riding. Marissal's name recognition and incumbency (though from a different party) give him a solid base, but the race is not settled. Given that he is officially the PQ candidate in Taschereau, the probability leans toward YES, but with moderate uncertainty due to the distant election date and potential shifts. Thus, a 0.65 probability reflects a reasonable edge without being overly confident.