Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be less than 2,000,000?

The question asks whether total votes cast in the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election will be less than 2,000,000. Arizona is a competitive state with a closely watched governor's race, as indicated by multiple articles covering debates and the race's significance Ground SplitGround BiggsGround Arizona. Historically, Arizona's gubernatorial elections have seen turnout around 2.4-2.6 million in recent midterms (e.g., 2022 had about 2.5 million votes for governor). The 2026 race features prominent candidates and early voting has already started, suggesting robust engagement Ground Early. However, midterm turnout can vary, and the 2,000,000 threshold is a meaningful bar. Given Arizona's population growth and the high-profile nature of the race, it is more likely than not that total votes exceed 2,000,000, but there is meaningful uncertainty due to potential turnout fluctuations or unique circumstances. The articles do not provide specific vote projections, so I rely on historical patterns and the race's visibility. Thus, I estimate a 60% probability that votes are less than 2,000,000, reflecting a slight lean toward YES but acknowledging the possibility of higher turnout.