Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the Texas's 15th District House election be at least 1 percentage points?

The only directly relevant article reports that Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz won Texas's 15th District in the 2024 election with 57.1% of the vote against Democrat Michelle Vallejo's 42.9%, a margin of 14.2 percentage points NYT article. This is well above the 1 percentage point threshold specified in the resolution criteria. The article notes the vote count is certified, indicating a reliable outcome. While the question asks about the 2026 election, the 2024 result provides strong evidence of the district's current partisan lean. The district flipped for Trump and has shown Republican strength NYT article. Other articles discuss different Texas races (Senate, state politics) or national mood, but none provide contradictory information about the 15th District's competitiveness Guardian articleGround articlePost articleTIME articlethenewdaily.com.au article. Given the large margin in 2024 and no evidence of a dramatic shift, it is likely the Republican margin will again exceed 1 point in 2026. However, some uncertainty remains due to potential demographic changes or candidate effects, so the probability is high but not near 1.