Will voter turnout in the 2026 Quebec general election be less than 58%?

The question asks whether voter turnout in the 2026 Quebec general election will be less than 58%. The most recent comparable election, in 2022, had a final turnout of 66.15% Ground Results, which is well above the 58% threshold. While there are reports of barriers that could disenfranchise some voters, such as unhoused individuals facing identification or access issues Ground Advocates, these effects are unlikely to reduce overall turnout by more than 8 percentage points from the 2022 level. Historical turnout in Quebec has generally been above 60% in recent decades, and no major structural or political shift has been reported that would dramatically suppress participation. The noon and 5 p.m. preliminary figures in 2022 were 29.20% and 44.63% respectively Ground Results, indicating steady turnout throughout the day. Without strong evidence of a significant drop, the probability that turnout falls below 58% appears low.