Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be less than 150,000?

The question asks whether total votes cast in the 2026 Wyoming Senate election will be less than 150,000. Wyoming is a low-population state, and its Senate elections typically draw far fewer votes than the national average. For example, in the 2020 Senate race, about 280,000 votes were cast, but that was a presidential year with high turnout. In the 2022 midterm, the Senate race saw roughly 220,000 votes. However, the 2026 midterm is a non-presidential year, and turnout is usually lower. The articles provided focus on primary elections and local issues, not on general election turnout projections. They do not provide specific vote totals or forecasts for the 2026 general election. Given the historical pattern of midterm turnout in Wyoming, it is plausible that total votes could be below 150,000, but it is not certain. The resolution criteria also include a fallback: if results are not known by March 31, 2027, the market resolves to the lowest bracket, which would be a YES. This adds a slight upward bias to the probability. Considering the lack of direct evidence and the historical range, I estimate a 60% chance that total votes will be less than 150,000.