Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho be less than 480,000?

The question asks whether total votes cast in the 2026 Idaho Senate election will be less than 480,000. Idaho is a solidly red state with a population of about 2 million, and the article notes that the Republican primary winner is likely to win the general election Aljazeera article. Historically, Idaho Senate general election turnout has been around 500,000-600,000 votes in recent midterms (e.g., 2018 had ~500k, 2014 ~400k, 2022 ~450k). Given the state's population and typical midterm turnout rates, a total below 480,000 is plausible but not certain. The article does not provide specific turnout projections, only noting the primary is a bellwether for the GOP's direction Aljazeera article. Since the resolution criteria include all certified votes and the election is not until November 2026, there is uncertainty. The lack of specific data in the article means I must rely on general knowledge, but the article confirms Idaho's modest population and competitive primaries that could drive turnout. I estimate a slightly higher probability that votes will be below 480,000, as midterm Senate races in Idaho often see turnout in the 400k-500k range, but the possibility of higher turnout (e.g., due to national attention) keeps the probability from being extreme. Thus, I set the probability at 0.62, leaning toward YES but acknowledging significant uncertainty.