WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on September 24?

The question asks whether WTI crude oil closes above $96 on September 24, 2026. The news articles describe a current supply disruption: drone attacks disabled Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, jeopardizing about 4 million barrels per day (4% of world supply), and global benchmark oil is already around $100/barrel smh.com.au article. Analysts at Barclays suggest prices could rise another 50% if the situation persists smh.com.au article. This indicates a strong upward pressure on oil prices in the near term. However, the resolution date is September 24, 2026, which is over a year away. The articles do not provide any specific forecast for that date, and the situation could change (e.g., pipeline repairs, OPEC+ actions, demand shifts). The current price around $100 is already above $96, but the market's active month contract for September 2026 may differ, and the resolution depends on the close on that specific day. Given the current bullish context and the fact that oil is already above $96, there is a moderate lean toward yes, but the long time horizon introduces significant uncertainty. The articles do not mention any bearish factors or specific projections for 2026, so I assign a probability slightly above 0.5, reflecting a cautious yes given the current price level and supply concerns, but not a strong conviction due to the distant date.