Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in Minnesota in the 2026 midterm elections?

The question asks whether Democrats will win fewer than 3 House seats in Minnesota in the 2026 midterm elections. Minnesota currently has 8 House seats, and in recent cycles Democrats have typically won between 4 and 5 of them (e.g., 4 in 2022, 5 in 2020). The provided articles are almost entirely off-topic: they cover a billionaire critic of Trump, general speculation about Democratic House seat gains nationally, Elon Musk's Pentagon commission, Epstein estate images, and a House investigation into a DOJ settlement. None of these articles provide specific information about Minnesota's 2026 House races, district boundaries, candidate quality, or polling. The Washington Post opinion piece Post article discusses national House seat projections but does not break down Minnesota specifically, and its content is speculative. Given the lack of relevant state-level data, I must rely on baseline expectations. Minnesota is a competitive but lean-Democratic state in presidential years, and the 2026 midterm environment is uncertain. For Democrats to win fewer than 3 seats (i.e., 0, 1, or 2), they would need to lose at least 2 of their current seats, which is possible but not the base rate. Historical performance and the absence of any reported wave against Democrats in Minnesota suggest the probability is below 0.5, but not extremely low because midterm swings can be large and the articles hint at a potentially challenging national environment for Democrats Post article. I set the probability at 0.35, reflecting a meaningful but not dominant chance of a Democratic underperformance in Minnesota.