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The question asks whether the Fed will hike rates in 2026, but the provided articles all discuss 2023 or near-term 2023-2024 rate decisions, not 2026. Article Reuters Fed mentions a September 2023 rate hike still being on the table, which is irrelevant to 2026. Article AP article discusses July 2023 Fed minutes where 'many' officials thought higher rates would be needed if inflation stayed high, but this is a near-term view and does not project to 2026. Article Reuters Fed reports a Reuters poll showing a strong majority (80% of 104 economists) expect no rate change through year-end 2023, with only 22 forecasting a hike in 2023, again not addressing 2026. Article Reuters rates quotes Fed's Collins saying rates need to rise soon absent evidence of ongoing disinflation, but 'soon' refers to the current period, not 2026. None of the articles provide any direct evidence or forecasts about Fed rate decisions in 2026. Given the lack of relevant information, the probability of a rate hike in 2026 is low but not negligible, as the Fed could potentially hike if inflation persists or economic conditions change. However, without any data on 2026, a moderate NO leaning is appropriate.
Articles in the pack
- Reuters Fed — Fed minutes show September rate hike still on the table
- AP article — ‘Many’ Fed officials think higher rates will be needed if inflation stays high
- Reuters Fed — Fed to hold interest rates this year, economists say, sticking to their view: Reuters poll
- Reuters rates — US rates need to rise soon absent evidence of ongoing drop in inflation, Fed's Collins says