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China

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Event 1 of 61Resolved NOfrom Kalshimarket 50%
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jul 1, 2026?If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jul 1, 2026 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date. A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.Discussion →
Event 2 of 61Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
China x India military clash by June 30?This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Indian military forces. Hand-to-hand combat with the use of melee weapons between military personnel, will qualify. For example the 2020 Galwan Valley clash and the 2022 Yangtse clash would both count. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Discussion →
Event 3 of 61Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026?This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cho Jung-tai ceases to be Premier of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Cho Jung-tai's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cho Jung-tai and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Discussion →
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Resolution log

WhenEventActionDetail
8/23/2026, 8:15:59 AMWill the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jul 1, 2026?resolvedKalshi finalized NO (KXTAIWANLVL4-26JUL01)
8/23/2026, 8:02:05 AMChina x India military clash by June 30?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:05 AMTaiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)