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RESOLVED YESWill fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?
LOCKS 40MWill Trump say "Million", "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during his Midterm Rally in Texas?Elections
RESOLVED NOWill the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) win seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary elections?
LOCKS 23H 35MWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on October 8?Oil
RESOLVED YESWill ADI win the second-most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?
LOCKS 25H 34MWill the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more?Elections
RESOLVED NOWill ADI win the most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?
LOCKS 25H 34MWill the Labour Party candidate win less than 30% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Elections
RESOLVED NOWill Ukraine target Moscow on October 3, 2026?
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China

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Event 1 of 76Resolved NOfrom Kalshimarket 50%
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jul 1, 2026?If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jul 1, 2026 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date. A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.Discussion →
Event 9 of 76Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Discussion →
Event 15 of 76Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during their summit?Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin a state visit to the United States on September 24, 2026, where he will be received by Donald Trump at the White House. This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during this summit. Any handshake recorded during the summit will qualify. For the purposes of this market, the summit begins when Xi Jinping enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States and ends once Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory. If no handshake occurs during the summit, or if Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”. If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only". Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact. If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Qualifying Requirements: The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person. Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted). The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish. Non-qualifying examples: Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings. Any handshake that is too unclear to measure. Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration. Video or photographic evidence of the handshake must be released during the calendar days (ET) of the summit to qualify. This market may resolve at the end of the calendar day (ET) that Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory at the end of the summit. If Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”. The resolution source will be video footage.Discussion →
Event 5 of 76Resolved NOfrom Kalshimarket 50%
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments before Sep 1, 2026?If the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An extension, modification, or replacement of the tariff truce in effect at Issuance qualifies as a new mutual tariff agreement. A qualifying agreement must address tariff rates or tariff suspensions; agreements limited to other trade matters do not count. Unilateral tariff actions do not count, even if the other side declines to respond. Reports that negotiations are ongoing, near completion, or agreed in principle by only one side do not count. An agreement qualifies once reached and confirmed by both governments, regardless of when it takes effect. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.Discussion →
Event 6 of 76Resolved YESfrom Polymarketmarket 100%
Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in China?Each market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline. A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting. JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. Territorial definitions: "China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan. "Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands. "South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis.Discussion →
Event 16 of 76Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will Trump insult Xi by end of US Visit?Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin a state visit to the United States around September 24, 2026, where he will be received by Donald Trump at the White House. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Xi Jinping between the first calendar date (ET) and the final calendar date (ET) of Xi's visit to the United States. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the visit begins when Xi Jinping enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States and ends once Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory. Qualifying insults may be issued on any calendar day (ET) of the visit. A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. This market may resolve at the end of the calendar day (ET) that Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory at the end of the visit. If Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.Discussion →
Event 12 of 76Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of Xi summit?Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin a state visit to the United States around September 24, 2026, where he will be received by Donald Trump at the White House. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly endorses the People's Republic of China's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan by the end of this summit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify, Trump must make an explicit public statement affirming that Taiwan is part of China, that China has sovereignty over Taiwan, or that the United States supports China's claim to Taiwan. Restating the long-standing United States "One China policy", acknowledging that China holds such a position, noting that the United States does not support Taiwanese independence, or declining to say whether the United States would defend Taiwan will not qualify, as none of these constitutes an endorsement of China's claim. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. A statement issued jointly by the United States and China will qualify if Trump personally endorses it. The summit will be considered to have ended at the end of the calendar day (ET) on which Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory. No meetings, events, or statements which occur after this time will be considered. If Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Discussion →
Event 14 of 76Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin a state visit to the United States around September 24, 2026, where he will be received by Donald Trump at the White House. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump and Xi Jinping kiss at any point during this summit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Video or photographic evidence of the kiss must be released during the summit to qualify. A qualifying kiss is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving the lips of one individual touching another individual. A qualifying kiss need not be reciprocal; a kiss on the cheek or hand from either party will qualify. For the purposes of this market, the summit begins when Xi Jinping enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States and ends once Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory. This market may resolve once Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory at the end of the summit. If Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be based on photographic/video footage.Discussion →
Event 13 of 76Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin a state visit to the United States around September 24, 2026, where he will be received by Donald Trump at the White House. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump and Xi Jinping hug at any point during this summit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Video or photographic evidence of the hug must be released during the summit to qualify. A qualifying hug is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving the two individuals wrapping at least one arm around the other individual's shoulders or back while facing each other in a manner consistent with a hug. Gestures where only one individual places an arm around the other, or where both individuals place arms around each other while standing side by side and not facing each other, will not qualify as a hug. Brief incidental contact, such as a pat on the back or shoulder without arm-wrapping from both parties, will similarly not qualify. For the purposes of this market, the summit begins when Xi Jinping enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States and ends once Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory. This market may resolve once Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory at the end of the summit. If Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be based on photographic/video footage.Discussion →
Event 4 of 76Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
US x China tariff agreement by August 31?This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced. Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Discussion →
Event 2 of 76Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
China x India military clash by June 30?This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and India between January 29, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Indian military forces. Hand-to-hand combat with the use of melee weapons between military personnel, will qualify. For example the 2020 Galwan Valley clash and the 2022 Yangtse clash would both count. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however the Indian Coast Guard (ICG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Discussion →
Event 3 of 76Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026?This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cho Jung-tai ceases to be Premier of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Cho Jung-tai's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cho Jung-tai and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Discussion →
Event 8 of 76Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 15?If Xi Jinping visits the United States between market creation and September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Discussion →
Event 17 of 76Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will Xi leave the USA on September 24, 2026 or earlier?Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin a state visit to the United States on September 24, 2026, where he will be received by Donald Trump at the White House. This market will resolve according to the date, in Eastern Time, on which Xi Jinping physically departs from the United States. Departure is defined as the moment Xi Jinping leaves the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States, or the moment of take-off of an aircraft which contains Xi Jinping and subsequently lands outside of the United States. If Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or has not departed by that date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and China; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Discussion →
Event 10 of 76Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates by September 30?This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate. A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate. If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.Discussion →
Event 11 of 76Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by September 30?This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Ren Zhengfei was outside China at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both the presence outside China and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside China occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed. Ren Zhengfei need not depart China during the market window, nor remain outside China at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside China at market creation, his confirmed presence outside China during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to China. China is defined as territory administered by the People's Republic of China, including Hong Kong and Macau and excluding Taiwan. In cases where Ren Zhengfei may have exited Chinese airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than China for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Ren Zhengfei exits Chinese maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Discussion →
Standings
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Unscored (incomplete slate): Henry Routson

Resolution log

WhenEventActionDetail
10/1/2026, 8:15:09 AMRen Zhengfei confirmed outside China by September 30?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
10/1/2026, 6:15:20 AMWill China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/30/2026, 6:15:09 PMWill the People’s Bank of China increase rates by September 30?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/27/2026, 8:15:38 AMUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?resolvedPolymarket settled YES (prices 1 / 0)
9/26/2026, 11:30:43 AMWill Trump insult Xi by end of US Visit?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/26/2026, 10:00:54 AMWill Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/26/2026, 10:00:54 AMWill Trump and Xi hug at their summit?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/26/2026, 10:00:53 AMTrump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of Xi summit?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/25/2026, 7:15:36 PMWill Xi leave the USA on September 24, 2026 or earlier?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/24/2026, 1:30:40 AMWill Trump and Xi not shake hands during their summit?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/16/2026, 6:15:09 AMWill Xi Jinping visit US by September 15?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/1/2026, 1:45:34 PMWill it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States and China reach a new mutual tariff agreement, publicly announced or confirmed by both governments before Sep 1, 2026?resolvedKalshi finalized NO (KXTARIFFAGREE-27-26SEP01)
9/1/2026, 7:01:39 AMUS x China tariff agreement by August 31?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/31/2026, 1:15:53 PMWill Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in China?resolvedPolymarket settled YES (prices 1 / 0)
8/23/2026, 8:15:59 AMWill the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jul 1, 2026?resolvedKalshi finalized NO (KXTAIWANLVL4-26JUL01)
8/23/2026, 8:02:05 AMChina x India military clash by June 30?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:05 AMTaiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)