RESOLVING NOWLIVE
RESOLVED YESWill fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?
LOCKS 40MWill Trump say "Million", "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during his Midterm Rally in Texas?Elections
RESOLVED NOWill the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) win seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary elections?
LOCKS 23H 35MWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on October 8?Oil
RESOLVED YESWill ADI win the second-most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?
LOCKS 25H 34MWill the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more?Elections
RESOLVED NOWill ADI win the most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?
LOCKS 25H 34MWill the Labour Party candidate win less than 30% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Elections
RESOLVED NOWill Ukraine target Moscow on October 3, 2026?
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Israel & Gaza

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Event 39 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting between Israel and Syria by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement. A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person. Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city as part of a single organized round of talks convened for the purpose of diplomatic engagement, with the intermediary conveying communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location. Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the listed countries separately held alongside such a convening. The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments. The occurrence of a qualifying meeting must be confirmed by the resolution sources by the resolution date. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Syria and a consensus of credible reporting.Discussion →
Event 8 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by July 31?This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu visits New York City between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A “visit” refers to Netanyahu physically entering any of the five boroughs of New York City: Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx, or Staten Island. Entering New York City’s territorial waters will not qualify. Merely transiting through New York City airspace will not qualify. Landing at any airport within New York City will qualify only if Netanyahu leaves the airport. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Discussion →
Event 1 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 14?This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Greater Beirut by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Greater Beirut. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Greater Beirut do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and credible reporting.Discussion →
Event 13 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 15?This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Discussion →
Event 37 of 98Resolved YESfrom Polymarketmarket 100%
Will Netanyahu say "Israel" 10+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to speak during the United Nations General Assembly on September 24, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about Netanyahu's remarks during the United Nations General Assembly on September 24, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not available by September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio/video of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdfDiscussion →
Event 16 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Discussion →
Event 41 of 98Resolved YESfrom Polymarketmarket 100%
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 2?This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Jerusalem time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Jerusalem time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.Discussion →
Event 20 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will the Bank of Israel cut by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meeting?This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Israel Monetary Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Israel, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 31, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Israel calendar (https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Israel resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Discussion →
Event 17 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by October 31?This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Discussion →
Event 32 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel Election: Zionist Home & Blue and White Run on Same List?Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zionist Home and Blue and White contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list. If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered. If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Discussion →
Event 34 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel Election: The Reservists & Blue and White Run on Same List?Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if The Reservists and Blue and White contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list. If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered. If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Discussion →
Event 5 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Discussion →
Event 18 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025?This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Discussion →
Event 19 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Discussion →
Event 28 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel Election: Unity Party & Blue and White Run on Same List?Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Unity Party and Blue and White contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list. If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered. If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Discussion →
Event 30 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel Election: Zehut & Amcha Israel Run on Same List?Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zehut and Amcha Israel contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list. If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered. If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Discussion →
Event 33 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel Election: New Economic Party & Amcha Yisrael Run on Same List?Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the New Economic Party and Amcha Yisrael contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list. If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered. If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Discussion →
Event 29 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel Election: Yashar & Together Run on Same List?Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Yashar and Together contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list. If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered. If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Discussion →
Event 25 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel Election: Likud & RZP Run on Same List?Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list. If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered. If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Discussion →
Event 52 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel Election: Sami Abu Shehadeh Effectively Banned?Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sami Abu Shehadeh is effectively banned from standing as a candidate in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Sami Abu Shehadeh from standing as a candidate in the 2026 Knesset election. This includes, but is not limited to: Sami Abu Shehadeh being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration as a candidate, removed from a candidates’ list or from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to be elected to the 26th Knesset. The disqualification of the candidates’ list on which Sami Abu Shehadeh stands will qualify only where it also renders Sami Abu Shehadeh ineligible to be elected. A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Sami Abu Shehadeh is otherwise reinstated and permitted to stand, this market will resolve to "No". A decision by Sami Abu Shehadeh to voluntarily withdraw from or decline to contest the election will not qualify. Resignation, removal from office, arrest, or detention will not qualify, provided Sami Abu Shehadeh remains eligible to be elected to the 26th Knesset. Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Sami Abu Shehadeh, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Discussion →
Event 35 of 98Resolved YESfrom Polymarketmarket 100%
Israel Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zionist Home and Yashar contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list. If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered. If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Discussion →
Event 26 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit & Noam Run on Same List?Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list. If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered. If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Discussion →
Event 53 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel Election: The Democrats Effectively Banned?Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Democrats is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents The Democrats from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: The Democrats’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; The Democrats being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for The Democrats’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated. A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if The Democrats is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No". A decision by The Democrats to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of The Democrats will not qualify, provided The Democrats’s list remains eligible to contest the election. Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, The Democrats, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and The Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Discussion →
Event 36 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list. If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered. If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Discussion →
Event 40 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Discussion →
Event 49 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit Effectively Banned?Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Otzma Yehudit is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Otzma Yehudit from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: Otzma Yehudit’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; Otzma Yehudit being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for Otzma Yehudit’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated. A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Otzma Yehudit is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No". A decision by Otzma Yehudit to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of Otzma Yehudit will not qualify, provided Otzma Yehudit’s list remains eligible to contest the election. Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Otzma Yehudit, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and Otzma Yehudit; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Discussion →
Event 31 of 98Resolved YESfrom Polymarketmarket 100%
Israel Election: Zehut & RZP Run on Same List?Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zehut and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list. If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered. If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Discussion →
Event 27 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit & RZP Run on Same List?Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list. If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered. If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Discussion →
Event 3 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 17, 2026?This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Israel by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT, GMT+3). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Israeli ground territory. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israeli ground territory do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. "Israeli ground territory" refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory, it will not qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Israel, the Houthis, and credible reporting.Discussion →
Event 7 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Hezbollah relations on behalf of their governments/leadership structures. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah leadership, and a consensus of credible reporting.Discussion →
Event 12 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by May 31?This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.Discussion →
Event 4 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8?This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Discussion →
Event 11 of 98Resolved YESfrom Kalshimarket 50%
Will the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 1 after Issuance and before 2028?If the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement is at least 1 after Issuance and before 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Examples of qualifying agreements include the agreements signed in 2020 and 2021 between Israel and Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Morocco. Each country may be counted only once. Countries that have normalized relations with Israel as of Issuance do not qualify. A country whose relations with Israel existed previously but are not in effect as of Issuance may qualify.Discussion →
Event 21 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026?This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Syria by the specified date, 11:59 PM Syria Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Syria. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Syria do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Syria” refers to the terrestrial territory of Syria, including its internal waters. Syria’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Syria as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Syria Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Syria and a consensus of credible reporting.Discussion →
Event 2 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026?This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Discussion →
Event 6 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by May 31?This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Tyre in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Tyre will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.Discussion →
Event 9 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by May 31?This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.Discussion →
Event 15 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will not run for reelection to the Israeli Knesset in this election by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only definitive announcements will count. Suggestions, statements of consideration, or other non-definitive statements will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Discussion →
Event 10 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel military action against Yemen by July 14?This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Yemen” refers to the territory within the internationally recognized borders of Yemen. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory, it will not qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Yemen and credible reporting.Discussion →
Event 14 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by May 31?This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Choukine in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Choukine will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.Discussion →
Event 72 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will Israel strike 0 countries in 2026?This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Discussion →
Event 24 of 98Resolved YESfrom Polymarketmarket 100%
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 3?This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.Discussion →
Event 23 of 98Resolved YESfrom Polymarketmarket 100%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?This market will resolve according to the change in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the Bank of Israel’s September monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Israel after its September 1, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Bank of Israel interest rate decision schedule: https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/# This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Israel's announcement of their September 1, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the Bank of Israel Interest Rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Discussion →
Event 48 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel Election: Ofer Cassif Effectively Banned?Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ofer Cassif is effectively banned from standing as a candidate in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Ofer Cassif from standing as a candidate in the 2026 Knesset election. This includes, but is not limited to: Ofer Cassif being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration as a candidate, removed from a candidates’ list or from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to be elected to the 26th Knesset. The disqualification of the candidates’ list on which Ofer Cassif stands will qualify only where it also renders Ofer Cassif ineligible to be elected. A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Ofer Cassif is otherwise reinstated and permitted to stand, this market will resolve to "No". A decision by Ofer Cassif to voluntarily withdraw from or decline to contest the election will not qualify. Resignation, removal from office, arrest, or detention will not qualify, provided Ofer Cassif remains eligible to be elected to the 26th Knesset. Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Ofer Cassif, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Discussion →
Event 50 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel Election: Ra'am Effectively Banned?Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ra'am is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Ra'am from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: Ra'am’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; Ra'am being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for Ra'am’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated. A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Ra'am is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No". A decision by Ra'am to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of Ra'am will not qualify, provided Ra'am’s list remains eligible to contest the election. Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Ra'am, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and Ra'am; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Discussion →
Event 38 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel military action against Iraq by September 30, 2026?This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Iraq by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Iraq. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Israel. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Israel directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iraq do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iraq” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iraq, including its internal waters. Iraq’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iraq as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iraq and a consensus of credible reporting.Discussion →
Event 51 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel Election: RZP-Zehut Effectively Banned?Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Religious Zionist Party–Zehut list is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents the Religious Zionist Party–Zehut list from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: the Religious Zionist Party–Zehut list’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; the Religious Zionist Party–Zehut list being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for the Religious Zionist Party–Zehut list’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated. A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if the Religious Zionist Party–Zehut list is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No". A decision by the Religious Zionist Party–Zehut list to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of the Religious Zionist Party–Zehut list will not qualify, provided the Religious Zionist Party–Zehut list’s list remains eligible to contest the election. Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, the Religious Zionist Party–Zehut list, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and the Religious Zionist Party–Zehut list; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Discussion →
Event 47 of 98Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Israel Election: Joint List Effectively Banned?Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Joint List is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents the Joint List from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: the Joint List’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; the Joint List being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for the Joint List’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated. A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if the Joint List is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No". A decision by the Joint List to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of the Joint List will not qualify, provided the Joint List’s list remains eligible to contest the election. Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, the Joint List, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and the Joint List; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Discussion →
Standings
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Unscored (incomplete slate): jajewew618

Resolution log

WhenEventActionDetail
10/4/2026, 9:15:11 AMIsrael military action against Lebanon on October 2?resolvedPolymarket settled YES (prices 1 / 0)
10/3/2026, 12:30:34 PMIsrael Election: RZP-Zehut Effectively Banned?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
10/2/2026, 10:45:38 PMIsrael Election: Otzma Yehudit Effectively Banned?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
10/2/2026, 10:45:27 PMIsrael Election: The Democrats Effectively Banned?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
10/2/2026, 4:45:47 PMIsrael Election: Joint List Effectively Banned?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
10/2/2026, 4:45:38 PMIsrael Election: Ofer Cassif Effectively Banned?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
10/2/2026, 2:30:48 PMIsrael Election: Ra'am Effectively Banned?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
10/2/2026, 2:30:37 PMIsrael Election: Sami Abu Shehadeh Effectively Banned?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
10/1/2026, 1:00:15 PMIsrael military action against Iraq by September 30, 2026?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
10/1/2026, 9:45:10 AMIsrael x Syria diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
10/1/2026, 6:15:14 AMWill the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/24/2026, 8:30:19 PMWill Netanyahu say "Israel" 10+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?resolvedPolymarket settled YES (prices 1 / 0)
9/11/2026, 12:00:11 PMIsrael military action against Lebanon on September 3?resolvedPolymarket settled YES (prices 1 / 0)
9/9/2026, 8:45:12 AMIsrael Election: Unity Party & Blue and White Run on Same List?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/9/2026, 4:15:14 AMIsrael Election: Likud & RZP Run on Same List?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/9/2026, 4:15:13 AMIsrael Election: Otzma Yehudit & Noam Run on Same List?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/9/2026, 4:15:09 AMIsrael Election: New Economic Party & Amcha Yisrael Run on Same List?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/9/2026, 4:15:09 AMIsrael Election: Zehut & Amcha Israel Run on Same List?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/9/2026, 4:15:09 AMIsrael Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?resolvedPolymarket settled YES (prices 1 / 0)
9/9/2026, 3:30:10 AMIsrael Election: The Reservists & Blue and White Run on Same List?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/9/2026, 3:30:09 AMIsrael Election: Zionist Home & Blue and White Run on Same List?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/9/2026, 1:45:12 AMIsrael Election: Zehut & RZP Run on Same List?resolvedPolymarket settled YES (prices 1 / 0)
9/9/2026, 1:30:09 AMIsrael Election: Otzma Yehudit & RZP Run on Same List?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/9/2026, 12:45:12 AMIsrael Election: Yashar & Together Run on Same List?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/8/2026, 11:45:09 PMWill Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/4/2026, 4:15:31 AMIsrael military action against Syria by August 31, 2026?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/1/2026, 3:30:45 PMWill the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?resolvedPolymarket settled YES (prices 1 / 0)
9/1/2026, 3:15:34 PMWill the Bank of Israel cut by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meeting?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/1/2026, 6:15:54 AMWill a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:16:36 AMWill Israel strike 0 countries in 2026?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:16:01 AMWill Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by July 31?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:17 AMWill Israel annex any territory by December 31?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:16 AMIsrael and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:16 AMNetanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:16 AMIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:16 AMWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by October 31?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:14 AMIsraeli forces enter Choukine by May 31?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:14 AMWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 15?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:14 AMWill the number of distinct countries with which Israel has agreed to normalize relations under a ratified agreement be at least 1 after Issuance and before 2028?resolvedKalshi finalized YES (KXISRNORMCOUNT-27DEC31-AL1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:14 AMIsraeli forces enter Nabatieh by May 31?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:12 AMIsrael military action against Yemen by July 14?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:12 AMIsraeli forces enter Beirut by May 31?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:12 AMIsrael x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:11 AMIsraeli forces enter Tyre by May 31?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:10 AMWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:10 AMIsrael closes its airspace by May 8?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:10 AMWill there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 17, 2026?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:09 AMIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:01 AMIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by July 14?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)