NATO

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Event 8 of 11Locks Dec 30, 06:00 PMfrom Polymarketmarket 1%

NATO dissolves before 2027?crowd reveals at lock · no calls in yet · locks in 84d 1hDiscussion →

Event 7 of 11Locks Dec 30, 06:00 PMfrom Polymarketmarket 5%

NATO article 5 before 2027?crowd reveals at lock · no calls in yet · locks in 84d 1hDiscussion →

Event 11 of 11Locks Jan 8, 09:00 AMfrom Kalshimarket 5%

Will Klaus Iohannis be the next Secretary General of NATO?crowd reveals at lock · no calls in yet · locks in 26390d 16hDiscussion →

Event 9 of 11Locks Dec 30, 06:00 PMfrom Polymarketmarket 4%

Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?crowd reveals at lock · no calls in yet · locks in 84d 1hDiscussion →

Event 10 of 11Locks Dec 31, 10:59 PMfrom Polymarketmarket 4%

NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027?crowd reveals at lock · no calls in yet · locks in 85d 6hDiscussion →

Event 2 of 11Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%

Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Discussion →

Event 3 of 11Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%

Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Discussion →

Event 1 of 11Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%

EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30?This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO or EU member country officially announces that they will be sending troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be part of a formal agreement between a NATO or EU member country and another country or international organization or otherwise indicative of a formalized policy. Announcements which are statements of intent, contingent, or otherwise are not indicative of a formalized policy will not count The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Discussion →

Event 5 of 11Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%

Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Article 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked. For example, Poland's request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If a member state only expresses intent to or is considering invoking Article 4, that alone does not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO; authoritative statements from the requesting member government may also be used.Discussion →

Event 4 of 11Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%

Will any country leave NATO in 2025?This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Discussion →

Event 6 of 11Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%

Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 19, 2026? (copy)On September 18, 2026, Donald Trump announced that the United States had entered into an agreement with the Kingdom of Denmark and Greenland concerning security in Greenland. The governments of Denmark and Greenland confirmed that an agreement is expected to be signed. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by Donald Trump on September 18, 2026 is officially released by the government of the United States, Denmark, or Greenland between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "agreement announced by Donald Trump on September 18, 2026" includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. The "text of the agreement" refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement. Public disclosures of the agreement's contents, including fact sheets, summaries, and descriptions of its terms, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. A portion of the text of the agreement must be officially released by at least one of the governments of the United States, Denmark, or Greenland through official government channels or an authorized public release to the media. Leaks, unauthorized disclosures, or other unofficial publications will not qualify. Text of the agreement read aloud, without release in visual form, will not qualify. Government confirmation of the authenticity of leaked or otherwise unofficially disclosed text, without an official public release of the text itself, will not qualify. A joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it is officially released as specified in these rules and contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the parties. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States, Denmark, and Greenland and a consensus of credible reporting.Discussion →

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Resolution log

When	Event	Action	Detail
9/20/2026, 6:45:57 AM	Will the Greenland agreement text be released by September 19, 2026? (copy)	resolved	Polymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
9/1/2026, 7:01:35 AM	Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?	resolved	Polymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:20 AM	Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?	resolved	Polymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:20 AM	Will any country leave NATO in 2025?	resolved	Polymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:19 AM	Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	resolved	Polymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 7:46:55 AM	EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30?	resolved	Polymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)