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LOCKS 5H 18MWill fewer than 160 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?Oil
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RESOLVED NOWill Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by more than 10%?
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NATO

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Event 2 of 9Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Discussion →
Event 3 of 9Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Discussion →
Event 1 of 9Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30?This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO or EU member country officially announces that they will be sending troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be part of a formal agreement between a NATO or EU member country and another country or international organization or otherwise indicative of a formalized policy. Announcements which are statements of intent, contingent, or otherwise are not indicative of a formalized policy will not count The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Discussion →
Event 4 of 9Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will any country leave NATO in 2025?This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Discussion →
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Resolution log

WhenEventActionDetail
8/23/2026, 8:02:20 AMWill Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:20 AMWill any country leave NATO in 2025?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:19 AMWill US withdraw from NATO by June 30?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 7:46:55 AMEU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)