RESOLVING NOWLIVE
RESOLVED YESWill David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?
LOCKS 5H 18MWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 17-August 23?Iran
RESOLVED NOVenezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026?
LOCKS 5H 18MWill Adilet win the most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?Live from Polymarket
RESOLVED NOWill Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by more than 15%?
LOCKS 5H 18MWill fewer than 160 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23?Oil
RESOLVED YESWill Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%?
LOCKS 5H 18MWill Adilet win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?Live from Polymarket
RESOLVED NOWill Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by more than 10%?
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Event 13 of 24Resolved YESfrom Polymarketmarket 100%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by August 31?This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before August 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.Discussion →
Event 4 of 24Resolved YESfrom Polymarketmarket 100%
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 24, 2026?This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Discussion →
Event 1 of 24Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify. Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify. Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.Discussion →
Event 2 of 24Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Discussion →
Event 3 of 24Resolved NOfrom Polymarketmarket 0%
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed. An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Discussion →
Event 19 of 24Resolved YESfrom Polymarketmarket 100%
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1m barrels per day in 2026?This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month. The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row. This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Discussion →
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Resolution log

WhenEventActionDetail
8/23/2026, 8:30:54 AMWill US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by August 31?resolvedPolymarket settled YES (prices 1 / 0)
8/23/2026, 8:16:41 AMWill Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1m barrels per day in 2026?resolvedPolymarket settled YES (prices 1 / 0)
8/23/2026, 8:02:18 AMWill Houthis successfully target shipping on July 24, 2026?resolvedPolymarket settled YES (prices 1 / 0)
8/23/2026, 8:02:18 AMUS announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 8:02:18 AMWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)
8/23/2026, 7:46:55 AMUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?resolvedPolymarket settled NO (prices 0 / 1)