Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?

The question asks whether fewer than 170 ships will transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the specified week. The news articles describe a significant escalation in Houthi military activity along the Yemeni coast, including the capture of Mocha and advances toward the Dhubab district on the strait Reuters IranReuters Yemen. This directly threatens shipping through the waterway, as the Houthis have previously attacked vessels in the Red Sea. The articles indicate that the Houthis are now within striking distance of the strait, which would likely cause shipping companies to reroute or delay transits to avoid risk Reuters Yemen. The timing of the question (September 14-20, 2026) aligns with the reported offensive, suggesting that disruptions could be ongoing during that period. While the articles do not provide specific ship counts, the clear threat to the strait's security makes a reduction in transits plausible. However, the exact number of transits depends on how quickly shipping companies react and whether naval escorts or other measures mitigate the disruption. Given the severity of the threat but the lack of precise data on transit numbers, a moderate probability of fewer than 170 ships is reasonable. The articles do not mention any countervailing factors that would maintain normal traffic levels, so the balance of evidence leans toward a reduction.