Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?

The question asks whether any country will expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31, 2026. The resolution criteria specify that an official, unambiguous announcement of expulsion qualifies, regardless of whether the ambassador actually leaves. Article Reuters article and FT article both report that South Africa declared Israel's chargé d'affaires Ariel Seidman persona non grata on January 30, 2026, giving him 72 hours to leave. This is a definitive, official expulsion by a government (South Africa) of an Israeli diplomatic representative assigned to that country. The event occurred well before the December 31, 2026 deadline. Therefore, the condition is fully met. The fact that Israel retaliated by expelling a South African diplomat does not change the fact that an Israeli ambassador was expelled. The resolution criteria explicitly state that voluntary departures or recalls are irrelevant, but here the expulsion was initiated by South Africa, not a voluntary Israeli action. Thus, the probability is extremely high, approaching certainty.