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Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-23 by 35% or more?
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THE MODELAI FORECAST
RESOLVING NOWLIVE
RESOLVED NOWill the Greenland agreement text be released by September 19, 2026? (copy)
LOCKS 1H 46MWill AfD win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Live from Polymarket
RESOLVED NOWill Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale win the Falealili 1 by-election?
LOCKS 1H 46MWill Grüne win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Live from Polymarket
RESOLVED NOWill the opposition parties win by 7 or more seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
LOCKS 1H 46MWill Linke win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Live from Polymarket
RESOLVED NOWill the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the popular vote in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election by less than 4%?
LOCKS 1H 46MWill Ramzan Kadyrov win the 2026 Chechnya gubernatorial elections?Live from Polymarket
RESOLVED NOWill voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be less than 82%?
RESOLVED NOWill the Greenland agreement text be released by September 19, 2026? (copy)
LOCKS 1H 46MWill AfD win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Live from Polymarket
RESOLVED NOWill Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale win the Falealili 1 by-election?
LOCKS 1H 46MWill Grüne win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Live from Polymarket
RESOLVED NOWill the opposition parties win by 7 or more seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
LOCKS 1H 46MWill Linke win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Live from Polymarket
RESOLVED NOWill the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the popular vote in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election by less than 4%?
LOCKS 1H 46MWill Ramzan Kadyrov win the 2026 Chechnya gubernatorial elections?Live from Polymarket
RESOLVED NOWill voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be less than 82%?
